Bueno de Mesquita combines game theory and computer modeling to make predictions on global events and happenings.  You can read more about his book here.  I’ve read about him before – I think that he’s got a really interesting handle on how people and groups interact with one another…

Just for kicks, here are a few things that he predicts would happen (exerpted from the latest edition of Newsweek magazine):

- If the U.S. doubles its aid to Pakistan this year to $1.5 billion, it would be enough to ensure a civil, secular government that no longer accomodates terrorists.

- By 2012 Iran’s bonyads – charitable trusts that control much of the economy – will wield more political clout than any other faction; a more secular regime will emerge.

- Copenhagen will be a bust, as will its main mission: by 2040 we’ll have given up on regulating carbon emissions.  Global warming will be solved with wind, rain, and solar invention.

- The best path to peace in the Middle East:  make Isreael and the Palestinian Authority share tax revenue from tourism, 60-40, boosting the P.A.’s GDP by 20%.