Bad Match
When the source of truth is the thing that’s wrong.
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CNN’s Manu Raju asked Speaker Mike Johnson in June of this year a simple question: what evidence is there that California’s primary was rigged? [1]
Johnson’s response: “Some of these efforts are so diabolical and so far upstream it's impossible to prove. But I think everybody knows instinctively that something is wrong here.” [2]
The fraud is so clever that no evidence exists – the gut feeling itself is enough to move forward with addressing the imagined problem.
This happens in corporate environments, but it’s way more prevalent with public decision makers.
It’s the hypothesis-driven decision – it starts with someone saying, “I think that…” (in this case, “I think that there is widespread voter fraud…”) and people just push forward to address it.
Without thinking or without checking.
Proponents come up with solutions to address the perceived problem, and we’re seeing some real-world versions about what’s happening next with our elections.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s emergency docket was used to allow states to use DHS’s SAVE database to check voter rolls for noncitizens; Justices Sonya Sotomayor and Elena Kagan joined Justice Katanji Brown Jackson’s dissent – “In my view…, the harm caused by burdening or disenfranchising even a few lawful voters outweighs the nonexistent harm that the Government experiences when it is prevented from taking an action that it likely lacks the authority to take.” [3]
Forgetting the merits of the decisions or the dissent – is the source of truth to be used even reliable?
Well, Nevada gave us an answer. In July, DHS sent a letter to the Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, alleging there may be nearly 16,000 noncitizens registered to vote in Nevada. [4] Aguilar stated at the time: "We can affirm that on its face, we refute these claims. These numbers are wildly speculative at best and the Department of Homeland Security hasn't shared anything that backs it up." [5]
DHS quietly walked back the allegations of nearly 16,000 noncitizens, revising their estimate downward considerably: “federal officials have only been able to identify 185 potential noncitizen voters so far.” [6]
This week, we learned that this number is actually lower: zero. [7][8] Every person identified by DHS to be a noncitizen – and therefore, in the eyes of the federal government, should be removed from voter rolls – are actually American citizens.
From New York Times reporting: [9]
On Tuesday, the state sent a strongly worded rebuke to the federal government: Every single person on the list was a lawful citizen.
“As for the 185 individuals, our records indicate that they were citizens,” Greg D. Ott, a deputy attorney general in Nevada, wrote, according to a copy of a letter sent to Department of Homeland Security officials obtained through open records requests. “You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise.”
Texas found a similar problem with the federal government’s database – of the 18.6 million registered voters in Texas, [10] only 2,700 (or 0.015%) were identified as potential noncitizens when compared with the SAVE database. However, an additional review showed that, of these, 578 voters demonstrated citizenship. [11][12]
Generally, a 20% false positive rate – flagging someone as a noncitizen when they really are a citizen – is an abysmal error rate.
Bad matches. Bad decisions.
If 99.99% of registered voters are reliably identified as citizens, the bogeyman of voter fraud is just that – an imaginary monster intended merely to scare us.
Plus, the instances in Nevada and Texas demonstrate that this database – getting the decisions of non-citizenship wrong one out of every five times - shouldn’t be used as a source of truth.
Notes and Sources
[1] “Speaker Johnson asked about evidence on unsubstantiated claims of 'rigged' LA mayoral race,” CNN, June 8, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/08/politics/video/mike-johnson-la-mayor-primary-election-hnk-digvid
[2] Ibid.
[3] Department of Homeland Security, et al. v. League of Women Voters, et al., 609 U. S. ____ (2026), September 25, 2026, https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/26a308_pok0.pdf
[4] Isabella Aldrete, “Feds say 15K noncitizens are on Nevada voter rolls; SOS calls it 'wildly speculative',” The Nevada Independent, July 17, 2026, https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/feds-say-15k-noncitizens-are-on-nevada-voter-rolls-sos-calls-it-wildly-speculative
[5] Ibid.
[6] Tabitha Mueller, “Trump admin quietly walks back claim of 16K noncitizens voting in Nevada,” The Nevada Independent, August 21, 2026, https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/trump-admin-quietly-walks-back-claim-of-16k-noncitizens-voting-in-nevada
[7] Eric Nuegeboren, “185 noncitizen voters flagged by Trump admin in Nevada are likely citizens, state says,” The Nevada Independent, September 24, 2026, https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/185-noncitizen-voters-flagged-by-trump-admin-in-nevada-are-likely-citizens-state-says
[8] Nick Corasaniti, “From 16,000 to 185 to Zero: Trump’s Claims of Illegal Voting in Nevada Fizzle,” New York Times, September 24, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/politics/nevada-voters-homeland-security-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
[9] Ibid.
[10] Texas Secretary of State Robert S. Howden, “Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current),” retrieved September 26, 2026, https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml
[11] Texas Secretary of State Robert S. Howden, “Texas Secretary of State Refers 117 Cases for Investigation of Noncitizen Voting,” press release, September 15, 2026, https://www.sos.state.tx.us/about/newsreleases/2026/091526.shtml
[12] Abbie VanSickle, “Supreme Court Allows Expansive Federal Database for Voter Screening,” New York Times, September 25, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/us/politics/supreme-court-citizenship-voter-lists.html
Decisions with Mic Farris
Seek Truth. Honor Differences.
