Decisions: Election 2025 Edition
America will be making key decisions this week.
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Rapid fire rundown of the key election decisions America will be making this week, plus the efforts to make it more difficult for us to drive our future.
New York: Mamdani
New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in July by defeating sitting New York City Mayor Eric Adams and the former Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo, his nearest competitor, by 12 points. [1] Despite losing to Mamdani, both Adams and Cuomo chose to run against Mamdani in the general election, although Adams has since dropped out.
His upstart candidacy has drawn harsh (and in some cases, ugly) criticism from his opponents and those in power, “marked by bigotry, bitterness, and broken friendships.” [2]
[Cuomo’s] campaign released (and then quickly deleted) a disgusting, AI-generated video featuring a pimp, a drug dealer, a shoplifter, a domestic abuser, and a drunk driver all purporting to be “Criminals for Zohran Mamdani” and committing crimes as New York literally burns. The campaign blamed the release on an unnamed low-level staffer without explaining who commissioned, created, and approved the racist slop, which ends with the words “Paid for by Cuomo NYC.”
As the election season ends, Mamdani seems to be carrying a big lead into Election Day, according to reporting from the New York Times: [3]
Early voters made their way to polling places on Thursday through a driving rain, and mayoral candidates roamed a soggy New York City in search of votes, as two new polls confirmed what other surveys have shown: With five days until Election Day, Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, maintains a considerable lead over his two main rivals.
One poll of likely voters, from Emerson College, showed Mr. Mamdani leading by about 25 percentage points over former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who is running as an independent. In third place was Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee.
The other poll, by Marist University, showed Mr. Mamdani with a 16-point lead and as the only candidate viewed favorably by a majority of likely voters. The poll also showed a closer race in a hypothetical matchup between Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Mamdani, with Mr. Cuomo trailing by just seven points.
Cuomo, who left the office of New York Governor in 2021 resulting from “a barrage of sexual harassment allegations,” [4] has recently been caught taking campaign contributions from five-year olds: [5]
Five days after Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral campaign accepted a maximum $2,100 donation from Rabbi Marc Schneier in March, the campaign accepted a far more unusual gift: $250 from the rabbi’s five-year-old son.
The campaign then applied for and received $2,000 in taxpayer funds matching the son’s donation. The problem? A campaign cannot seek taxpayer matching funds for a person under 18.
…
New York City also has a strict legal requirement that donors fund their own contributions, raising questions about how a 5-year-old funded his own donation.
And as Josh Marshall, publisher of Talking Points Memo, quips sarcastically: [6]
Governor’s Races in Virginia and New Jersey
Democrats are in a strong position to win the Virginia governorship from Republicans. With less than a week to go, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a “commanding 10-point lead” over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. [7]
Democrats are also looking to win the governorship for a third straight term – a feat not accomplished by either party for 60 years. Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill currently holds the edge, leading three-time Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli by five to eight percentage points across a variety of polls. [8]
California: Proposition 50
In July, President Trump pushed “Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional maps to create more House seats favorable to his party, part of a broader effort to help the GOP retain control of the chamber in next year’s midterm elections.” [9] Texas responded by gerrymandering the Congressional district maps to benefit Republicans, increasing their chances to win five more seats. [10].
While Texas kickstarted this battle, California responded by placing Proposition 50 on the November 2025 ballot, which would allow for a temporary redrawing of Congressional maps to counter the Texas plan, seat for seat. [11]
New polls show overwhelming support for Prop 50 heading into Election Day by a 56-43 margin, and the responses have been highly motivating to California voters: [12]
Mark Baldassare ran the statewide poll and said there was one big surprise for this special election, which aims to temporarily redraw district lines.
"The number of people who said the outcome was very important to them was 68%. That's the highest I've ever seen, any time I've ever asked that question, in the last 20 years," said Baldassare.
Arizona: Honoring the Will of the People
We’re at a point in our democratic journey where we can’t take for granted that elections will be held and that power will be handed over peacefully.
The January 6 insurrection was a key example of this – when President Trump lost the election, according to the federal indictment against him, he organized an effort to keep power by “perpetrat[ing] three criminal conspiracies” relating to the certification of the 2024 presidential election. [13]
This is happening again with the refusal to seat Democrat Adelita Grijalva of Arizona to the House of Representatives: [14]
U.S. Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva unwillingly set a record on Wednesday with her 36-day wait to be sworn in to represent the state’s 7th Congressional District.
The Tucson Democrat easily won a Sept. 23 special election in the deep blue southern Arizona district formerly represented by her father Raúl Grijalva, who died of cancer in March.
But Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives has refused to swear in Grijalva, using a range of excuses, the most frequent of which is the federal government shutdown, which began Oct. 1.
…
Because Johnson has refused to seat Grijalva, she now holds the record for the longest delay in seating a member of Congress following a special election, a distinction previously held by Rep. Jimmy Gomez, of California. But there’s a huge difference: Gomez requested the delay due to family issues, while Grijalva and other Democrats have repeatedly demanded that Johnson swear in Grijalva.
…
Grijalva, along with other Democrats, claim that Johnson is blocking her from taking office because she would be the 218th vote needed to force the release of the FBI’s case files concerning pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Republicans have largely opposed doing so because President Donald Trump is reportedly featured in those files, as he and Epstein were close friends in the 1990s before they had a falling out.
Johnson has denied those allegations.
Federal Judge: Blocking Voter Suppression
In March, President Trump issued an executive order purporting to address voter fraud by requiring “documentary proof of United States citizenship” on federal voter registration forms. [15]
I’ve written about the efforts like this that turn out to be far more effective at suppressing votes from American citizens than preventing votes from non-citizens: [16]
Voter suppression and limiting the right to vote is a long-standing practice within America, and preserving our democracy is something of which we need to stay vigilant. Messing with the electoral process happens at all levels, from federal to local, with historic and current examples including poll taxes, literacy tests, voter roll purges, forensic audits in search of widespread fraud patterns, reductions in the number of polling places and moving them to difficult-to-reach locations, reduction and/or elimination of mail-in ballot drop boxes location in large counties, voter ID laws, and restrictions of day and time that polling places are open.
I write about this in my book Local Democracy in America – the root cause: the desire to stay in power: [17]
We take for granted that norms alone can guide our democratic self-governance journey. However, letting the people decide is not a natural impulse. People in power want to be in power, want to stay in power, and dislike when others question their possession or use of power. Letting the people decide is commonly viewed by those in power as a risk, decreasing the likelihood of achieving their aims; consequently, ensuring a desired outcome becomes preferable to honoring the voters’ democratically made decision.
This week, a federal judge blocked this “documentary proof” requirement of the executive order, since the question before the court was “whether the President, acting unilaterally, may direct changes to federal election procedures. Because our Constitution assigns responsibility for election regulation to the States and to Congress, this Court holds that the President lacks the authority to direct such changes.” [18]
From Reuters reporting: [19]
A federal judge on Friday permanently blocked part of an executive order from Republican U.S. President Donald Trump, ruling that the president cannot require voters to show passports or similar documents as proof of citizenship before voting.
Several lawsuits have challenged the president's March 25 executive order, a sweeping order aimed at overhauling federal elections, and courts had already temporarily blocked it from going into effect. U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly in Washington, D.C., was the first to reach a final ruling against the executive order.
Narratives
The book I’m reading or movie I’m watching
The Diplomat (Season 3 now streaming on Netflix)
The Diplomat is an American political thriller television series created by Debora Cahn. It stars Keri Russell as a veteran U.S. diplomat who is unexpectedly appointed as the ambassador to the United Kingdom amid an emerging international crisis. [20]
The Diplomat has been nominated for three Emmy awards, including two nominations for Keri Russell in the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series category and a nomination this year for Outstanding Drama Series. [21]
GIF Game
Notes and Sources
[1] Dana Rubenstein, “Zohran Mamdani Wins N.Y.C. Mayoral Primary in Decisive 12-Point Victory,” New York Times, July 1, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/nyregion/mamdani-wins-mayor-primary-nyc.html
[2] Errol Louis, “New York’s Mayoral Race Has Gotten Ugly,” New York Magazine, October 28, 2025, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/cuomo-sliwa-zohran-mamdani-nyc-mayor-ugly-finish.html
[3] Jeffery C. Mays and Matthew Haag, “New Polls Reflect Mamdani’s Steady Lead as Candidates Roam Soggy City,” New York Times, October 30, 2025, updated November 1, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/30/nyregion/nyc-mayor-election-news
[4] Marina Villeneuve, “Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigns over sexual harassment allegations,” AP News, August 10, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-resigns-17161f546bb83c32a337036ecf8d2a34
[5] Chris Bragg, “Documents Shed Light on Cuomo’s Five-Year-Old Donor,” New York Focus, October 31, 2025, https://nysfocus.com/2025/10/31/cuomo-marc-schneier-child-donor
[6] Josh Marshall [@joshtpm.bsky.social], Bluesky, October 31, 2025, https://bsky.app/profile/joshtpm.bsky.social/post/3m4jernnhdk2v
[7] Markus Schmidt, “Poll: Spanberger extends 10-point lead; Miyares up 8 as Hashmi-Reid contest stays close,” Virginia Mercury, October 30, 2025, https://virginiamercury.com/2025/10/30/poll-spanberger-extends-10-point-lead-in-governors-race-miyares-up-8-as-hashmi-reid-contest-stays-close/
[8] Joseph Ax, “Can Democrats find their footing? Tight New Jersey governor's race tests Trump's pull,” Reuters, October 30, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/can-democrats-find-their-footing-tight-new-jersey-governors-race-tests-trumps-2025-10-30/
[9] Joey Cappelletti and Nicholas Riccardi, “Trump tells Texas Republicans to redraw the state congressional map to help keep House majority,” AP News, July 15, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-congress-house-republicans-texas-redistricting-d18e8280a32872d9eefcbb26f66a0331
[10] Jen Rice, “The GOP Gerrymander in Texas: How They Rigged the Map,” Democracy Docket, September 10, 2025, https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/the-gop-gerrymander-in-texas-how-they-rigged-the-map/
[11] Blake Jones, “California moves forward with gerrymander to counter Texas,” Politico, August 21, 2025, https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/21/california-gerrymander-counter-texas-00518951
[12] Tim Caputo, “New polls show Californians overwhelmingly support Prop 50 ahead of Election Day,” ABC7 News, October 31, 2025, https://abc7.com/post/new-polls-show-californians-overwhelmingly-support-prop-50-ahead-election-day/18092683/
[13] United States v. TRUMP, 1:23-cr-00257, (D.D.C.), Document 1, August 1, 2023, https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump_23_cr_257.pdf
[14] Caitlin Sievers, “Johnson sets record refusing to swear in Adelita Grijalva for 36 days after she won election,” AZ Mirror, October 29, 2025, https://azmirror.com/briefs/johnson-sets-record-refusing-to-swear-in-adelita-grijalva-for-36-days-after-she-won-election/
[15] Donald J. Trump, Executive Order 14248, “Preserving and Protecting the Integrity of American Elections,” March 25, 2025, Code of Federal Regulations, 90 FR 14005, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/03/28/2025-05523/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections
[16] Mic Farris, “National Security and Social Security,” March 30, 2025, https://www.micfarris.com/articles/national-security-social-security
[17] Mic Farris, Local Democracy in America, Amazon Kindle Direct Publishing, 2025, p. 3.
[18] Dietrich Knauth, “US judge permanently blocks Trump order requiring voters to prove citizenship,” Reuters, October 31, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-permanently-blocks-trump-order-requiring-voters-prove-citizenship-2025-10-31/
[19] LEAGUE OF UNITED LATIN AMERICAN CITIZENS v. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, 1:25-cv-00946, (D.D.C.), Document 218, October 31, 2025, https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.279032/gov.uscourts.dcd.279032.218.0_1.pdf
[20] “The Diplomat (American TV series),” Wikipedia, retrieved November 1, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Diplomat_(American_TV_series)
[21] ‘The Diplomat: Awards,” IMDb, retrieved November 1, 2025, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt17491088/awards/?ref_=tt_awd
Decisions with Mic Farris
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