Rebuke is the only explanation for the decision made by American voters.
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This week’s midterm elections was so enormously decisive that there can only be one explanation for the results.
Not fraud. Not illegal immigrants voting. Not big city shenanigans to take the election away from red rural voters.
The real explanation – a full-throated rebuke of Donald Trump and the Republican Party that let him do want he wanted to the federal government, the White House, and the country.
There is actually so much here, I will need to write out my thoughts in three separate posts:
The results – the full breadth and depth of the rebuke (this post)
The impact and fallout of this rebuke and what’s possible over the next 1-2 years
The future to come – what I think will happen beyond the near-term
At the federal level, Donald Trump did what he wanted, the Supreme Court – via the Trump v United States decision, one of the worst decisions in history, [1] granted him immunity for anything he could plausibly connect to his official duties, and the Congress – both the House and the Senate in Republican control – allowed Trump and his staff to do whatever they wanted without any checks.
They’ve ruined the credibility of:
The Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, though casting doubts on vaccine efficacy and risking public health – where we’ve seen spikes in measles cases since the administration has taken over in 2025. [2]
The Department of Defense, dismissing generals if they weren’t white men who looked the part (or whatever part Secretary Hegseth thinks generals should look like).
Three-star Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, who led the Navy Reserve until August 2025 when fired by Hegseth was just elected to the House of Representatives form South Carolina. [3]
The Justice Department, even failing to indict a Washington DC with a felony assault charge – for throwing his sandwich at them [4]
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), sending masked agents to the streets of America, rounding up American citizens and either been killed by ICE agents [5] or have died in ICE custody. [6]
The East Wing of the White House is destroyed. Trump tried to put his name on the living memorial for John F. Kennedy. He’s trying to build an arch that’s 2.5 times as tall as the Lincoln Memorial and almost as tall as the Capital Building itself. [7]
We’ve figured out how to get Canada mad at us – CANADA! [8]
Trump and his administration knew they may lose the midterms, so that pressured states to gerrymander their Congressional districts to create more of them that are Republican-friendly. I actually wrote about this a year ago, [9] presenting a scenario of a GOP wipeout that seems to have come true.
I’m know I’m missing quite a lot, especially the sheer level of corruption that 91% of participants in a voter poll viewed the importance of government corruption as “a major factor” or “crucial” on their House vote… [10]
But even with all of this, voters made the connection to two huge decisions by Trump and how harshly these choices affected them directly.
First, Trump unilaterally imposed tariffs on the world, making goods coming into the country more expensive. Since these are taxes paid by American companies and generally passed on to consumers, Americans paid more for the things they buy. Rather than bringing prices down after the inflation resulting from post-COVID supply chain settling, these tariffs kept inflation high.
Then, in a double mistake, Trump unilaterally started a war with Iran. This broke his promise to keep the country out of forever wars – instead entering us into one. Plus, it was blatantly unconstitutional – only Congress can declare war. [11] Since this war of choice disrupted the supply chain of crude oil around the world, gasoline prices increased at home and have stayed high, increasing the overall inflation rate through this year.
People are feeling this in their pocketbooks, and they knew who to blame – Trump and the Republican Party that enabled him.
Voters knew not to be distracted by “they/them” ads or any science fiction sounding calls for a military with a “warrior ethos.” Culture wars aren’t what people want to fight, especially when there are real ones the President chose to get us involved with that deplete our military and make it harder for people back home to make ends meet.
The truth: Americans are done with the Trump Show and the Republican Party’s method of holding power.
This week’s election will serve as the final bookend to a Trump Era that lasted ten years, and each bookend was a surprise. The start came with the surprise of Trump’s election in 2016, and the end is the rebuke of Trump and his Republican Party in 2026, which was a surprise in how broad and deep the rebuke was.
Again, I plan to talk more about the impact of this rebuke and why it’s truly the bookend of this era, but that will be in the next post.
Let’s discuss why this election win for Democrats wasn’t just a reversal, but a rebuke in breadth and depth that will be considered historic.
When we discuss how broad this rebuke was, it was everywhere across the country, and it was significant. I know it’s one thing to say that it was everywhere, but sometimes visualizing the data can really get that point across.
In the elections for the United States Senate, there are seven seats where voters elected a Democrat for a seat currently held by a Republican (and Mississippi and Alaska are yet to called, so there could be nine seats that flip blue).
Counties – both rural and urban – saw significant shifts toward Democrats this year relative to two years ago.
This chart where the U.S. Senator race flipped from Republican to Democrat (Maine not pictured) – the blue arrows show how counties shifted toward Democrats (blue) or Republicans (red) in the 2026 race, compared to the 2024 presidential election. [12]
This is a huge number of seats to flip, but if you delve into the county level data, it’s not as if rural counties still voted Republican the same way they always did, and higher turnout in Democratic strongholds such as the large urban centers swung the race.
And this wasn’t just in states where there was a Senate seat – it was (nearly) everywhere. Here is a chart showing the size of the electoral shift by county across the country. Deep blue shows large shift to Democrats from two years ago, and red shows a shift towards Republicans. [13]
For those data nerds (like me), the red shifts in Montana result from an independent Senate candidate as the main competitor to the Republican, but a Democrat wouldn’t leave the race as requested to consolidate voter support, so there’s an appearance of a move away from Democrats and toward Republicans. The same issue shows up in South Dakota and Nebraska, since the only candidates were a Republican and an independent (or in Nebraska, a couple of other minor candidates) – there was no Democratic candidate.
(One of the things I like about working with data – and it’s important overall when it comes to decision making - is that there is always an explanation for why the data look that way, but you can’t always assume you understand why unless you dig in and look. Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska are such instances.)
The shifts went toward Democrats in nearly every county and by nearly the same significant amount.
This is what a blue wave looks like.
Now, let’s discuss how deep this rebuke was. The best example of this is in Texas.
Texas State Representative James Talarico did win his race for the U.S. Senate seat by 12 points in a state that Trump won by 14 points in 2024 – a 26-point shift to Democrats. But it wasn’t a blue shift just to elect Talarico over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was a uniquely terrible candidate – impeached by his own party in 2023 for bribery, dereliction of duty, disregard of official duty, and obstruction of justice. [14]
The shift to Democrats in Texas went across every statewide constitutional office and deep into state representative districts. This will lead to a significant change in Texas state governance from Governor to Attorney General to the state Supreme Court to the State House of Representatives.
Every statewide constitutional office was held by Republicans before this election. Voters elected Democrats for every office: [15]
Governor
State Representative Gina Hinajosa, the first Hispanic women to be elected Governor of Texas, beat Governor Greg Abbott, who was seeking his fourth term.
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Comptroller
Railroad Commissioner
An office with a six-year term
Despite its name, the Railroad Commission regulates the Texas oil and gas industry, not railroads.
Railroad Commissioners manage drilling, natural gas facilities, pipelines, hydrogen storage and carbon dioxide injection and storage.
Land Commissioner
Ag Commissioner
Four Supreme Court justices
The state’s highest civil court
4 of the 9 seats on the court were up for election
Before the election, Republicans held all nine seats.
After the election, Republicans hold a 5-4 majority over Democrats
The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court will be one of those Democrats
Court of Criminal Appeals
The state’s highest criminal court
3 of the 9 seats on the court were up for election
Before the election, Republicans held all nine seats.
After the election, Republicans hold a 6-3 majority over Democrats
15th Court of Appeals
A new court - elected statewide and for the first time this year
Created by the state legislature in 2023 to oversee appeals that involve the state, cases from business courts and challenges to the constitutionality of state laws
Before the election, Republicans held all three seats.
After the election, Democrats hold all three seats.
Texas House of Representatives
Before the election, Republicans held an 88-62 majority.
After the election, Democrats are projected to hold a 78-63 majority with 9 more seats still to be decided.
Texas State Board of Education
The Board of Education sets curriculum and chooses textbooks for Texas public schools.
Before the election, Republicans held an 11-4 majority.
After the election, Democrats and Republicans are currently split 7-7 with one more seat still to be decided.
Also, here’s an intersting example of just what a deep sweep can do in these types of races.
In the new 15th Court of Appeals (again, this court has a powerful mandate and are asked to grapple with practically every issue of political importance in the state because the court hears all civil cases involving the state or challenging state laws before they can be appealed to the Texas Supreme Court including marijuana policy, abortion policy, campaign finance disputes and more. [16]), the two candidates for the Chief Justice of the 15th Court of Appeals were: [17]
Scott Brister (Republican)
Appointed incumbent
Campaign cash on hand: $228,242
Money raised between January and June 2026: $93,443
Jerry Zimmerer (Democrat)
Campaign cash on hand: $15,142
Money raised between January and June 2026: $1,472
In this blue wave, Jerry Zimmerer won this statewide race 52% to 48% over Brister. Zimmerer spent a total of $12,600 through October 24 of this year. [18]
Those of you who were aware of city council races in Thousand Oaks might be interested in this comparison.
Five of the six candidates for Thousand Oaks City Council spent more in their city council district races than Zimmerer did in his Texas statewide race for Chief Justice.
Thousand Oak City Council district races have about an average of 17,000 registered voters.
Texas has 19,000,000 registered voters statewide.
An independent expenditure committee attacking one city council candidate in one of these district races spent more than Zimmerer did.
More states experienced the same deep blue shifts.
In Georgia, Democrats won all statewide offices from Governor to Lieutenant Governor to Attorney General to Secretary of State to Agriculture Commissioner. [19]
In Arizona, Democrats won control of both state legislative chambers and retained the Governor’s office, giving the party its first trifecta in the state since 1966. Democrats took full control – both statehouse chambers and governor’s offices – in at least six states where they previously shared power with Republicans. Those wins came in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. [20]
Here’s an overview of the breadth and depth of the blue wave from Axios: [21]
If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor, and 53% will live in Democratic trifectas.
Democrats flipped five GOP-held governorships (Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas) and lead in Alaska.
The bottom line: Republicans spent 16 years building a statehouse majority. Democrats erased it in one night, and now have two years to show voters what they'll do with it.
I’ll follow up in the coming days to discuss the impact of this rebuke. The Blue Wave of 2026 is a significant electoral event.
I’m very proud of my country this week.
Notes and Sources
[1] Mic Farris, “Trump v United States,” Decisions, February 8, 2026, https://www.micfarris.com/articles/trump-v-united-states
[2] “Measles (Rubeola): Weekly measles cases by rash onset date,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, retrieved November 7, 2026, https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
[3] Steve Benen, “Last year, Pete Hegseth fired Nancy Lacore. This year, she may get the last laugh.,” MS NOW, November 5, 2026, https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/nancy-lacore-pete-hegseth-navy-south-carolina-congress-midterm-elections
[4] Alan Feuer, Devlin Barrett, and William K. Rashbaum, “Prosecutors Fail to Obtain Indictment Against Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agent,” New York Times, August 27, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/us/politics/trump-sandwich-assault-indictment-justice-department.html
[5] Melissa Hellmann, “Eight people have died in dealings with ICE so far in 2026. These are their stories,” The Guardian, January 28, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/28/deaths-ice-2026-
[6] “Mourning Those Who Have Died in ICE Custody,” National Immigration Project, October 27, 2026, https://nipnlg.org/news/mourning-those-who-have-died-ice-custody
[7] “Washington, D.C., Triumphal Arch,” Brittanica, retrieved November 7, 2026, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Washington-DC-Triumphal-Arch
[8] “Canada Draws a Red Line Against Trump! Carney Reacts to Explosive Tariff Warning | WORLD NEWS,” YouTube, November 6, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwdybhDisPw
[9] Mic Farris, “Gerrymander Disaster,” Decisions, December 7, 2026, https://www.micfarris.com/articles/gerrymander-disaster
[10] “MS NOW Voter Poll,” MS NOW, retrieved November 7, 2026, https://www.ms.now/elections/2026-general/us/exit-polls-midterms-ufcj
[11] United States Constitution, Article I, Section 8, Clause 11, https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C11-2-1/ALDE_00000110/
[12] Albert Sun, Minho Kim, Marco Hernandez, and Emily Davies, “The 7 States That Flipped and Broke Republican Control of the Senate,” New York Times, November 4, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/04/us/elections/midterms-senate-states.html
[13] Edith Olmstead, “Stunning Map Shows Just How Much the Country Swung Left in Elections,” The New Republic, November 6, 2026, https://newrepublic.com/post/217710/map-how-much-country-swung-left-elections
[14] “Ken Paxton Impeachment,” Texas Tribune, retrieved November 7, 2026, https://www.texastribune.org/series/ken-paxton-impeachment-texas-attorney-general/
[15] Apurva Mahajan, “Live results: Texas 2026 general election,” Texas Tribune, November 3, 2026, https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2026/texas-general-election-live-results-2026/
[16] Paul Cobler and María Méndez, “Texas 15th Court of Appeals race: Who is running and what to know,” Texas Tribune, October 2, 2026, https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/02/texas-15th-court-of-appeals-2026-elections-guide/
[17] Ibid.
[18] “Jerry Zimmerer,” Transparency USA, retrieved November 7, 2026, https://www.transparencyusa.org/tx/candidate/jerry-zimmerer
[19] “Georgia Election 2026: Live updates, race calls and early takeaways,” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 3, 2026, https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/midterm-elections-live-updates/
[20] “Democrats win the Arizona House, Senate and governor's office for the first time since 1966,” PBS News, November 6, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-win-the-arizona-house-senate-and-governors-office-for-the-first-time-since-1966
[21] Andrew Pantazi, “Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses,” Axios, November 5, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/11/05/2026-midterms-democrats-state-legislatures-trifectas
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